When Should Semantic Priors Enter Partially-Identified Causal Discovery?

arXiv:2611.14736v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Observational causal discovery often leaves causal di- rections unresolved or unstable. Large language mod- els (LLMs) can provide semantic information to resolve these directions, but incorrect proposals can exclude the true causal graph and invalidate downstream inference. We study three separate decisions: where to allocate semantic queries, which proposals to admit, and which causal graphs to retain. Our framework distinguishes population non-identifiability from finite-sample insta- bility, evaluates semantic orientation against statistical and random controls, and examines calibrated admis- sion and error-tolerant DAG retention.