arXiv:2611.08840v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating advertising performance in cold-start settings is challenging because historical logs are unavailable before launch. Large language models (LLMs) offer a potential alternative by simulating persona-conditioned user responses, but it remains unclear which design choices actually drive LLM-based persona simulation. Using real Google Ads e-commerce campaign data across five demographic segments, we identify three signal-form dimensions that affect simulation quality: (i) a demographic anchor without noisy rich attributes, (ii) a relative qualitative banner-blindness signal rather than quantitative anchors, and (iii) prompt phrasing.
Machine Learning · 2026-11-09
What Matters for LLM Persona Simulation: Signal Form in Cold-Start E-Commerce Advertising
arXiv:2611.08840v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating advertising performance in cold-start settings is challenging because historical logs are unavailable before launch. Large language models (LLMs) offer a potential alternative by simulating persona-conditioned user responses, but it remains unclear which design choices actually drive LLM-based persona simulation.
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