Machine Learning for Live-Birth Prediction After IVF/ICSI From Structured Clinical Data: A Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Critical Appraisal

arXiv:2611.07124v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine-learning models predicting live birth after in vitro fertilisation (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) from routine clinical data report performance from near chance to near perfect. We systematically reviewed these models under PRISMA 2020, searching OpenAlex, Scopus and Web of Science to 22 October 2026, appraised them with PROBAST+AI and TRIPOD+AI, and pooled their discrimination with random-effects meta-analysis on the logit scale. We define what fixes the meaning of a model's output (decision point, endpoint, unit of analysis, data source) and map the 48 included studies by model family, decision point and validation design.