A Feasibility Condition for Confidence-Gated Tiered LLM Inference

arXiv:2611.05394v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Tiered inference distributes large language model computation across a hierarchy of devices, from on-device and edge hardware to the datacenter, and is increasingly offered as the route to cheaper, lower-latency, and more private serving. Most such systems orchestrate frozen model checkpoints, and most decide what to resolve locally and what to escalate using a confidence signal produced by a forward-deployed model. We give a closed-form condition for when no threshold on that signal makes a tiered cascade worthwhile relative to sending every query to the backstop.