Sequential auditing of connected forecast errors under partial observations

arXiv:2611.03928v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Graph forecasting systems often rely on prediction intervals to quantify uncertainty across connected locations, but the true outcomes needed for evaluation may be only partially observed. We study how an auditor can selectively retrieve missing outcomes to determine whether there exists a connected group whose outcomes violate the same side of their respective forecast intervals. The audit stops when the observed labels determine the event or the query budget is exhausted. On three public graph time series, MOMS reduces mean queries by 19.6% to 38.5% relative to screened random acquisition when 30% of labels are hidden.